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Monday, 30 July 2018

Linking out isn't about risk. It's about uncertainty.

Recently I wrote that you should check redirected links.

In The Ambler Warning from Robert Ludlum it is explained exactly why this is important.

From the previous blog, you might get the idea that it is an acceptable risk that one percent of the removed links, link out to hacked sites.

However Caston -my favorite character in The Ambler Warning- explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Let me quote Caston.
'This isn't about risk. That's what people like you never understand. It's about uncertainty. You think you can assign a probability metric to future events like this. For technical reasons we do that all the time. But it's bullshit - nothing more than a convention, an accounting conceit. Risk suggests measurable probability. Uncertainty is when likelihood of future events is simple incalculable. Uncertainty is when you don't even know what you don't know. Uncertainty is humility in the presence of ignorance.'
Because I don't know how sites get hacked, how it will be done in the future -Will the hackers use artificial intelligence?-, -Are hacking instructions for sale?- I realise that the percentage of 1% in the previous link is indeed bullshit.

However the advice to check redirected links is still valid, although it was based on risk. I think the advice should be based on uncertainty.

Again, good luck with checking and repairing your broken and redirected links.
Hans

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